مشخصات پژوهش

Although fire is a major ecological driver in arid ecosystems, controlling the danger of fire is still difficult because plant communities are dynamic and human interventions have context-dependent impacts. This study offers a spatially integrated methodology for evaluating the risk of fire in dynamic plant ecosystems. Seven plant functional traits were used in this framework: level of ramification, size of leaves, standing fine litter during the driest season, volatile oils, waxes, and/or resins, twig dry matter content, twig drying time, and leaf dry matter content. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to quantify the relative importance of plant functional traits related to flammability. Data were collected from experts through structured questionnaires, and responses were analyzed to calculate weighted priorities for each criterion, ensuring transparency and reproducibility. Spatial maps of flammability potential at the plant community level were created by integrating the weighted functional plant traits, their relative abundance and production. The most significant driver of flammability was measure using structural equation modeling (SEM). Relation management, species production and composition were assessed using the Fourth-Corner test and RLQ. The majority of high-risk areas were found in species-rich highlands. The most significant driver of flammability was management (p<0.001). Ecological contexts differed in the consequences of management: whereas proper management decreased fire susceptibility in some places, it inadvertently increased fire risk in others by favoring highly flammable species or raising fuel loads. The three-way interactions between plant species, primary management-environmental drivers, and flammability components were evaluated. These results demonstrate that the presence of combustible species alone cannot predict flammability, which is an emergent and dynamic trait of plant communities. This study emphasizes the need for site-specific and adaptive management in dry environments because the same intervention may have different results based on the ecological state and community dynamics. The suggested framework provides a useful instrument for setting fuel reduction priorities