مشخصات پژوهش

Sugar beet is a strategic industrial crop that plays a vital role in global sugar production and serves as a key source of energy for consumers. In Iran, the majority of the national sugar demand is fulfilled through domestic sugar beet production, highlighting the crop's importance in ensuring food and economic security. This study aims to examine the causal relationship between sugar beet supply and sugar prices in Iran over the period 2006/07 to 2023/24. The Johansen-Juselius cointegration model results showed that the price of sugar beet (with a coefficient of 0.57) and the price of sugar (with a coefficient of 0.05) have a positive and significant effect on the supply of sugar beet, while production cost (with a coefficient of -0.65) has a negative and significant effect, and rainfall (with a coefficient of 0.43) has a positive effect on the supply of this product. The short-term model results also indicate that a one percent increase in the price of sugar increases the supply of sugar beet by an average of 55 percent, and an increase in production costs with one and two lags decreases supply by 32 and 13 percent, respectively. The error correction coefficient (ECM) was negative and equal to -0.79, indicating a relatively suitable speed of adjustment toward long-term equilibrium. Furthermore, the Granger causality test confirmed the existence of a bidirectional causal relationship between the price of sugar and the supply of sugar beet. These findings highlight the importance of pricing policies, production cost management, and import regulation for the sustainability and development of sugar beet production in the country