محسن شرافتمندراد

The decline of medicinal plants is a threat to biodiversity, and it is essential to develop scientific strategies for their conservation and sustainable use. This study employed a community-based approach to evaluate the severity of decline in medicinal plants using physiological indicators such as leaf fall, leaf discoloration, number of living stems, regeneration capacity, and the presence of wounds. Furthermore, the relationship between decline severity and both environmental and anthropogenic factors was investigated to develop management strategies aimed at mitigating species loss. Results from the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) indicated that the most influential criteria for assessing decline severity in Zataria multiflora were, in descending order, number of living stems, regeneration capacity, leaf fall, presence of wounds, and leaf discoloration. The overall severity of decline in the study area was close to 60%, indicating substantial ecological stress. Structural equation modeling showed that temperature was the most important ecological factor and harvesting intensity was the most important social factor affecting the decline of Zataria multiflora. Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) was further used to examine the interactions among key ecological and social drivers. Considering the complexity of these interactions, the study underscores the need for dynamic, scenario-based, and multidimensional management strategies for sustainable conservation of Zataria multiflora. This approach offers a conceptual framework for managing other medicinal and rangeland species by explicitly integrating ecological and social drivers into management and conservation plans.