فرشاد سلیمانی ساردو

Ab stract—This study in ves ti gates the in flu ence of cli mate changes on droughts in the Bam re gion in Cen tral Iran by us ing cli mate change sce nar ios. In this study, the LARS-WG model was used for pre dict ing pre cip i ta tion pa ram e ters; pre cip i ta tion fore casts were made for three sce nar ios of cli mate change (A1, A1B, and B2). In the drought anal y sis, the SPI was used to ob tain the his tor i cal and prognostic data. The re sults in di cated that in the study area most of the years can be clas si fied into the nor mal class ac cord ing to the SPI in dex and most pre cip i ta tion oc curs in Jan u ary, Feb ru ary, March, April, and May. The re sults also in di cated that, ac cord ing to the Run the ory, the lon gest drought du ra tion was 32 months, ac cord ing to the SPI drought in dex with a 12-month scale, and the high est drought se ver ity was –36.37 in this re gion. The high est per cent age of drought fre quency in the prog nos tic data was al lo cated to the se vere class. These re sults can help im mensely in man ag ing the wa ter re sources of the re gion.