سعید برخوری

Adopting appropriate management practices and preventing the constant destructive factors involved in such practices requires the protection and monitoring of wetlands. On the other hand, land use and climate change play an important role in the degradation of wetlands. Therefore, this study sought to assess Jazmurian wetland conditions during the pre-and post-dam construction periods and under different climate change scenarios, taking into account land use and climate change as two significant relevant factors. To this end, Landsat images collected from TM 1991, ETM + 2008, and OLI 2021 sensors were used to investigate the trends of land use changes. Finally, predictive land use maps were prepared for 2040 using the Land Change Modeler (LCM). Moreover, the changes in minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation rates were both investigated in the past and predicted for the future using different climate change scenarios and the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The results of the land use investigation revealed that the area of wetland lake has decreased by 1611.45 km2 from 1991 to 2021 and that the trend of land use changes in the future is considerable, leading to an increase in the area of agricultural lands and salt lands, and thus to complete wetland dryness. Moreover, it was found that the average annual precipitation rate had a decreasing trend in the past and that it will decrease in the future compared to the base period. On the other hand, the results of minimum and maximum temperature rate analysis indicated an increasing trend by 3 and 2.56 °C under the RCP 8.5, respectively, compared to the base period. Therefore, the reduced precipitation and increased temperature in the past and future, and the construction of the Jiroft dam can be considered as factors causing a decrease in the wetland area and its water supply, and changes in the wetland’s surrounding ecosystems.