ali asgarian

This study investigates the paradox of landscape greening amidst agricultural output decline in a transforming arid agricultural region west of Isfahan, Iran (2009–2024). We tested the hypothesis that spectral greening masks a systemic shift from productive to non-productive land uses. Using a mixed-methods approach, we integrated official agricultural production statistics with Landsat-derived land cover classification and developed novel indices to quantify the decoupling between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and agricultural yield. Validation analyses confirmed that the indices were numerically stable and robust to uncertainty (coefficient of variation < 4%), while the NDVI–production elasticity (E = –1.83, p = 0.009) revealed a strong inverse coupling between greenness and productivity. Our results showed a marked divergence: mean NDVI increased by 16.3% as total agricultural production declined by 23% (–27,614 t), driven by a 32.5% reduction in cropland area and a 121% expansion of tree cover. The Productivity-per-NDVI index decreased from 139.1 to 100.9, underscoring a decline in economic output per unit of greenness. Together, these findings expose a spectral illusion of sustainability, where apparent greening signifies a structural transformation toward non-productive landscapes—underscoring the urgent need for agricultural monitoring systems that differentiate ecological vigor from economic viability.