علیرضا محمدی

Distribution range shift is inevitable for many species as climate change continues to shape and alter their habitat. Predicting where these shifts occur can help us know what to anticipate and thus design better programs and strategies for species management. Due to projected extreme climate change in many arid and semi-arid ecosystems, we hypothesized that many species adapted to these systems would experience considerable spatial shifts. To test our hypothesis, we modelled current and future habitats under different climate scenarios for three iconic carnivores (grey wolf, golden jackal, and striped hyaena) in central of Iran and calculated their spatial overlaps. Our models predict that although each species responds differently to environmental changes, their habitats are heavily influenced by climatic variables, water resources, and roads. Our models also suggest that the high-quality habitats of grey wolves and striped hyaenas will probably expand, while for golden jackals, it will decrease. Signifcant spatial overlap of highly suitable habitat will exist among the species, particularly between the golden jackal and the striped hyaena. The overlapped highly suitable areas for all species cover between 9% to 10% of the whole region at present and in the future. Because of the spatial overlap and decrease in rainfall in the future, the three carnivores may face competition due to climate change. Our fndings are crucial for establishing conservation areas that will conserve carnivore species in the future