علیرضا محمدی

Human encroachment in natural habitats and consequent landscape modifcations pose signifcant threats to animal populations, particularly endangered species. Therefore, studying the factors that determine the spatial distribution of large carnivores, including those at risk, holds great signifcance in developing effective conservation strategies. Among the most endangered bear populations worldwide, the conservation of the brown bear Ursus arctos population in the Central Zagros Mountains (southwestern Iran), which represents the species’ southernmost geographical range, is currently facing serious challenges. However, little is known about the species’ geographical range and the critical factors affecting its distribution in this area. Here, we employed a modelling approach to estimate the geographical distribution of this brown bear population and identify the primary landscape features that contribute to the species’ distribution. Our analysis revealed the following fndings: (1) about 45% of the study area comprises suitable habitat for brown bears; (2) main factors influencing bear distribution, along with their respective contributions, are (a) distance to conservation areas and prohibited hunting areas (CAs/PHAs; 33.7%), (b) maximum temperature during the warmest month (21.6%), (c) landscape roughness (14.8%), (d) forest density (11.2%) and (e) mean annul precipitation (10.6%); and (3) roughly 69% the predicted suitable habitats exist outside CAs/PHAs. This highlights the importance of considering areas beyond CAs/PHAs in future conservation strategies, were the connectivity among forest patches is crucial for bear survival. The recent escalation of human activities, such as the harvesting of natural resources (e.g., medicinal and aromatic plants, fruits and honey), orchard and agricultural development, overgrazing of livestock, and the construction of water transfer infrastructures from the mountains to downstream regions, raises signifcant concerns for bear conservation in the study area. These activities contribute to landscape changes and have the potential to escalate conflicts between local communities and bears. Our fndings highlight opportunities for designating new areas for brown bear habitat conservation and for promoting landscape connectivity.