علیرضا محمدی

Given the complex and dynamic interrelationships of the underlying factors contributing to conflicts associated with wolf presence and persistence in human-dominated landscapes, it is often difficult to clearly identify the ultimate causes of these conflicts. In this study, a system dynamics modeling approach was adopted to simulate human-wolf conflicts in an area with the greatest number of recently fatal wolf attacks on humans in Iran. Data used to build the model was obtained from questionnaire surveys and satellite tracking of wolves. We simulated changes in ecological and social factors that may influence conflicts under different assumptions. Our findings indicate that, in this context, the proximity of wolves to human settlements is one of the determining factors leading to increased wolf attacks on humans and livestock. When the distance between wolf territories and human settlements increases, the likelihood of both wolf incidents and retaliatory killings are expected to decrease. Effective communication of information regarding wolves across local communities is expected to result in a positive shift in attitudes toward the species, as well as a decrease in fear, which in turn will affect the rate of conflicts. Improper disposal of carcasses of domestic animals by the locals, dumping of waste in open dumpsites close to villages, and leaving children unattended on agricultural fields are expected to increase the recurrence of conflicts. We strongly urge Hamadan provincial office of environment and non-governmental organizations to initiate communication programs to raise awareness on the human-wolf conflict and its mitigation. This includes how to properly handle livestock carcasses at safe distances from human settlements. Furthermore, design and construction of sanitary landfills in the vicinity of each village, as well as providing education on how to properly use these sites could help reduce risky conflicts.