Zohre Ebrahimi-Khusfi

In recent years, climate change has widely affected different ecosystem conditions, especially natural wetlands across different regions of the world. This study was aimed at evaluating the effects of climate change on the drought characteristics of natural wetlands in Iran, based on the fifth assessment report scenarios of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), and effective Reconnaissance were compared to assess the future droughts according to their mean difference and the relationship between temperature anomaly (TA) and drought indices. Furthermore, the effect of increasing temperature on drought risk was analyzed using the return period of drought severity and duration. The results showed that SPEI and RDI performed better than eRDI to assess the future drought conditions of wetlands in Iran. The findings also indicated that all wetlands will experience decreasing trend in the rainfall, while only few of them will experience a similar trend in temperature, in future. According to the projected droughts, long-term droughts will have higher severity and duration than the base period in the eastern wetlands compared to those in western ones in Iran. It was also found that the southeastern wetlands will experience severe droughts in the future. This study can be useful to evaluate the projection of climatic parameters and to provide practical solutions for water resources management in Iran.